Why We Suck at Risk Analysis
I’m a numbers guy, my master’s degree is in math, and even though it didn’t specifically have a concentration in statistics, about half my courses were related to it. I also don’t enjoy flying (ok, that’s underselling it. I’m afraid of flying) so whenever I sit down in that cramped seat that has somehow gotten even smaller, I remind myself that the number of fatalities per mile driven is twice as many per mile flown. If you look at injuries, it’s even worse for the drivers. Nevertheless, my hands are sweaty, gripping the armrest as the plane comes in for landing, something I rarely feel while driving. Why is this? It basically comes down to the fact that we (humans) suck at evaluating relative risks, figuring out if one action is riskier than another. This has come up many times in considering vaccinations and other medical treatments and there are a number of psychological reasons this is the case. Knowing this does not al...